Reno Fine Homes Blog

And now for the heartwarming side of the housing bust: It’s helping some
people buy homes that they couldn’t afford a couple of years ago.
Michelle Dudley for years commuted 50 miles each way to her job as a civil
servant in Anaheim, Calif., because she and her husband, Don, didn’t feelthey could afford a home near her office. This week, though, the Dudleys
moved into a three-bedroom house in Anaheim that they recently bought for
$390,000, down from the original listing price of $445,000 in November.
Similar homes in the area were selling for as much as about $600,000 two
years ago, says Erin Eckert, an agent for Redfin, an online real-estate
brokerage that represented the Dudleys.
Still, many potential buyers are holding out for better deals. The Wall
Street Journal’s quarterly survey of housing-market conditions in 28 major
metro areas points to continued downward pressure on prices in much of the
country.
As usual, there is huge variation from town to town. In most of the country,
inventories of unsold homes are no longer growing quickly, as they did in
2006 and 2007, but remain huge. The supply has shrunk modestly in Boston and
Denver over the past year. But the number of for-sale signs continues to
rise swiftly in the Portland, Ore.; Seattle; Raleigh-Durham, N.C.; San
Francisco; and Washington areas.
The biggest gluts are in Florida. In the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area, the
supply of single-family homes and condominiums is enough to last 34 months
at the average sales rate of the past year. That months-supply figure is
about 21 in Orlando, 18 in Tampa and Las Vegas, 17 in Detroit and 14 in
Phoenix. A six-month inventory is generally considered a rough balance
between supply and demand.
For condos alone in Miami-Dade County, the supply would last 45 months at
the current sales rate.
Prices are coming down fast. Real-estate data company Zillow.com estimates
that the median value for all homes in the 12 months ended March 31 fell 25%
in the Las Vegas metro area, 19% in Miami and Orlando, and 16% in Phoenix.
The typical value is still rising modestly in a few places, including the
metro areas of Raleigh and Charlotte, N.C., Dallas and Houston. One hitch
for house hunters, though, is that mortgage lenders have become much more
restrictive with loans. And even buyers who can get financing still face a
tricky question: Should I wait for a lower price? Buying now, with home
prices generally falling, is “a gamble,” says Ms. Dudley, who just moved
into her new Anaheim home. But, she says, home prices will rise again at
some point. Meanwhile, she was tired of her long, expensive commute.
Kevin McCleary, a computer-security consultant, remained a renter through
the housing boom even though he could afford to buy, because he believed
prices were reaching unsustainable levels. In October, though, he and his
fiancée finally decided to buy a foreclosed home in Herndon, Va., and
negotiated a price of about $443,000. The same home sold in 2005 for
$645,000. “I don’t believe we hit it at the perfect time,” Mr. McCleary
says. On the other hand, he says, “we were just tired of putting our lives
on hold.”
During the boom, home prices rose far faster than incomes. Home prices as
measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller national index shot up 74% in the six years
through 2006, while median household income rose 15%. (Neither figure is
adjusted for inflation.) Now prices in many areas are adjusting back toward
more affordable levels, a process that could take several years.
In an analysis of 330 metro areas in last year’s fourth quarter, National
City Corp., a banking concern, and Global Insight, an economic research
firm, found that home prices were sharply overvalued in relation to
household income and other factors in 21 metro areas, down from a peak of 58
metro areas in the second quarter of 2006.
Economists at the two firms look at home prices in relation to household
income and other variables, including population density (an indication of
how much land is available) and past differences in prices caused by factors
like climate and schools. They then classify as “overvalued” metro areas
where home prices are more than 33% above a level that could be explained by
fundamental drivers of housing costs. Among areas where this analysis finds
that home prices are still too high are Bend, Ore., Atlantic City, N.J.,
Miami, Honolulu and Portland, Ore.
In most of the country, “we’re getting a return to normalcy” in the relation
between home prices and incomes, says Richard DeKaser, chief economist at
National City. But, he adds, prices may overshoot on the down side.
Economists at Goldman Sachs say home prices are likely to level off by late
2009. They also point to improving affordability. Goldman’s chief U.S.
economist, Jan Hatzius, says the share of a typical family’s income needed
to pay mortgage payments on a median-priced home averaged about 17.5% from
1993 to 2003, before jumping to 26% in 2006. The figure now has fallen to
20% and is likely to keep declining as home prices fall.
Mr. Hatzius estimates that average U.S. home prices have fallen 15% since
the second quarter of 2006 and projects they will fall an additional 10%
before stabilizing late next year. But he also sees a risk that home prices
will fall further, particularly if the foreclosure problem proves worse than
already expected.
Goldman estimates that foreclosures will add 1 million to 1.5 million homes
to the for-sale market this year, compared with less than half a million a
year before 2007.
During the first quarter, homes acquired by lenders through foreclosure
accounted for 33% of all sales of previously occupied homes in California,
up from just 3.2% a year earlier, according to Data Quick Information
Systems, a research firm in La Jolla, Calif.
Homeowners hoping to avoid a foreclosure are adding to downward pressure on the market, says Daniel R. Odio, owner of DROdio Real Estate Inc. in
Alexandria, Va. Such people often seek to unload their homes through a
“short sale,” in which the price is less than the amount owed on the
mortgage and the lender agrees to forgive the difference. Homeowners hoping
to do a short sale sometimes advertise very low asking prices to lure
buyers, even if there is little chance the lender would accept bids at that
level, Mr. Odio says. The “fictional” asking price, in turn, misleads
potential buyers about the value of nearby homes.
The supply of lower-priced homes has surged in some areas. Steven Thomas,
president of Re/Max Real Estate Services in Aliso Viejo, Calif., says there
are about 1,260 condos available for under $250,000 in Orange County,
Calif., or about triple the year-earlier total. 

By JAMES R. HAGERTY Wall Street Journal
April 24, 2008; Page D1
Write to James R. Hagerty at bob.hagerty@wsj.com

This is a very interesting article I read about the average home prices in Lake Tahoe.

“We’re seeing a considerable pick-up in the lower end of the market,” Chase International Vice President Sue Lowe said in a statement. “High-end homes sales aren’t moving as vigorously as they were last year, first quarter.”

According to Chase International’s first-quarter 2008 Tahoe-Reno statistics, the average price for a home at Lake Tahoe is now $909,919, a 38 percent drop from the previous average. Median home prices decreased 25 percent to $662,172.

Some key findings from the report by area:

·  Tahoe City: Overall sales volume in Tahoe City was down 25 percent with sales of homes priced more than $1 million seeing a 33 percent drop. But sales of single-family homes priced below $1 million jumped 25 percent. Total units sold was also up 9 percent. The average price of a home in Tahoe City is down 33 percent to $856,152 while the median price is down 22 percent to $575,000.

·  East Shore: Sales of homes priced above $1 million in the East Shore dropped by 40 percent with overall sales volume down 48 percent. Sales of homes priced below $1 million, however, saw an increase of 63 percent. Total units sold was also up 6 percent. The average price of an East Shore home dropped 51 percent to $1,183,363 while the median price dropped 34 percent to $775,000.

·  Incline Village: Some of the biggest decreases were reported in Incline Village, which reported a 73 percent decrease in sales volume and a 61 percent decrease in units sold. Sales of Incline Village homes under $1 million were down 50 percent while sales of homes priced above $1 million were down 71 percent.

The average price of an Incline Village home dropped 31 percent to $1,120,266, while the median price dropped 21 percent to $898,688.

·  South Lake Tahoe: With average home prices down 14 percent at $479,894 and median prices down 17 percent to $400,000, South Lake Tahoe remains the least expensive place to buy home on the lake, according to the report. Overall sales volume in the South Shore area was down 27 percent and total units sold was down 15 percent. Sales of homes priced under $1 million was down 10 percent while homes prices above $1 million saw a sales decline of 63 percent.

Although the drop in home prices might not be good news for sellers and home owners, they provide a good opportunity for buyers, said Leann Pinguelo, marketing director for Intero Real Estate Services in Incline Village.

“Here in Incline, you’re starting to see some incredible homes well under $1 million, which is rare for this area,” Pinguelo said. “Folks in the market who have saved and have good credit can definitely buy a lot more house for their money now.”

By Jason Hidalgo • jhidalgo@rgj.com • April 18, 2008

Nevada’s rate of foreclosures led the nation in March, with Washoe County reporting the third highest rate of foreclosures in the state, according to a national report released today. It is the 15th straight month that Nevada’s foreclosure rate was No. 1 in the U.S. Nevada had a foreclosure rate of 1 in 139 households, 3.9 times the national average. The rate is a 24 percent jump from last month and nearly 62 percent higher than the foreclosure rate in March 2007. The numbers were released by Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac, which tracks foreclosure data nationwide.

Clark County led the state again with foreclosure filings on 6,783 properties, a rate of 1 in 111 households. Churchill County had the second highest foreclosure rate of 1 in 259 households. Next was Washoe County with a rate of 1 in 277 households.Clark County sharply skews the state numbers, said Wayne Capurro, president of the Reno/Sparks Association of Realtors.”The rate is still high in Washoe County, so I don’t want to minimize that,” Capurro said. “But Nevada wouldn’t be ranked number one in foreclosures if it weren’t for Clark County.”Washoe County has the same foreclosure rate as the state of Georgia, which is sixth in the nation. Washoe also had 630 total properties with foreclosure filings in March, up 31 percent from 480 in February and up 61 percent from 392 in March 2007. Capurro blamed foreclosures entering the market and boosting supply as the main reason the area has yet to start a recovery.In the Reno-Sparks area, there were 4,197 homes on the market as of Monday, said Ken Wiseman, broker-owner of Reno Rancho Realty. With 74 homes sold so far this April, it will take some time to whittle down the area’s housing inventory, Wiseman said.”Supply is the telltale sign,” Wiseman said. “Unless we see some sort of change, I just don’t see things turning around within the next three months.”One positive sign is that the number of homes in the Reno-Sparks market has dropped from an 18-month supply to a 14-month supply, Capurro said. That is still twice as high as the typical six-month supply in a normal market but is a step in the right direction, Capurro said.Capurro and Wiseman agreed that home prices should stabilize within six months. Price slashing by banks desperate to clear foreclosed properties from their books has significantly lowered median home prices. But financial institutions can only lower prices for so long, Wiseman said.”If banks drop prices by 5 percent each month, then you’ll theoretically reach a price of zero at one point,” Wiseman said. “Well, banks just can’t give these houses away, especially now that you’re seeing homes priced at $180,000. We’re going to hit bottom here eventually, which we’re already getting down to at the lower end of the market.”For buyers priced out of the market during the peak of the housing boom, the housing downturn means homes have become affordable again, Wiseman said. Although it may take five years before home prices reach the peak seen during the housing boom, prices will likely start seeing an uptick later this year, Capurro said. That makes the next six months the perfect buying opportunity for people looking into a new home.”We have a long way to go from a 14-month supply to a six-month supply of homes,” Capurro said. “But that’s why the best buying opportunities are going to take place in the next six months. It’s a tragedy for people losing their homes. But it also makes it a very strong buyers’ market.”Reno Gazette-JournalBy Jason Hidalgo • jhidalgo@rgj.com • April 15, 2008 

Time Magazine Article

Ignore the Headlines!Except this one. Sure, housing’s in a hole. But there’s a potent case for buying now, whether it’s real estate or stocks CONCLUSION: If you waited a year to buy, you would have saved nothing and spent a year living someplace you’d rather not beSource:LendingTreeAnd “jumbo” mortgages, those more than $417,000, are likely to remain artificiallyhigh for a few more months while banks work through their credit issues.But let’s say you are emotionally ready to be a homeowner. You have goodcredit, plan to stay put for five years and have been waiting for the perfect entrypoint. It’s time to get serious-before an inevitable rise in interest rates wipesout your advantage. “The thing that will make home prices stop falling is the verysame thing that will push mortgage rates higher,” says Jim Svinth, chief economistat mortgage firm Lending Tree. So anything you gain by a further drop in pricesmight be offset by rising financing costs. Consider a typical home that sellsfor $218,900. You put down 20% and get a 30-year fixed-rate mortgageat today’s rate of 5.5%. Monthly principal and interestcome to $994.31. Let’s say that 12 months from now the same house goes for ro%less, or $197,oro. But by then the recession is history and the Fed is jacking up rates tostem inflation. If mortgage costs rise just half a point, to 6%, your monthly paymentwould be $994.94 and you’d have saved nothing. Meanwhile, home prices mightsteady and sellers might become less willing to negotiate. And you have spent ayear living someplace you’d rather not be. It’s more complicated ifyou must sell before you can buy. But that logjam won’t persist forever-and if it appearsyou’ll be trapped for a few years, try to refinance at today’s lower rates. Risks alwaysseem most acute when the headlines give you ulcers. But that’s exactly when youshould think long term and get off your thumbs.  $994.94 $197,010 If prices drop anadditional 10% COST IN 12 MONTHS? 6% Recession ends, and the Fed starts to raise ratesTypical home price Interest rate Monthly payment TODAY last quarter, and there has been plenty ofpanic about a recession. The Federal Reserve is slashing short-term interest ratesat the fastest clip in decades. But if you stick to your steady, diversified plan whileeveryone else is retreating, you will be happy years from now. For one thing, Fedrate cuts always lift the economy eventually, and the stock market typically startsresponding just as headlines get gloomiest. Sure, the market could fall again beforerecovering. But the recession may behalf over already-owed may avoid onealtogether. You just never know. As for housing, certainly some skepticismis in order. Formerly sizzling markets in Florida, Nevada, Arizona and Californiaprobably haven’t seen the worst headlines just yet, though they may well be close.$994.31· 5.5% Current rates after recent declines The Case Against Waiting to BuyFinance costs will rise as the economy recovers, so trying to time real estate might not pay off$218,900 Put 20% down and get a 3D-year fixed-rate mortgageFAMED MONEY MANAGER PETER LYNCH is perhaps best known for his timelesswisdom that you can beat the pros by focusing on stocks of companies where youeither work or shop or have some other edge. But a more relevant Lynchism todayis this gem: Ignore the headlines. That’s no easy thing. How do youtune out all the chatter and ink on recession, housing, subprime woes, the creditcrunch, rogue traders, insolvent bond insurers, oil and nukes in Iran? It’senough to make you sit on your thumbs and wait before making any big moves.But what, exactly, are you waiting for? There has rarely been a moment inhistory when you couldn’t scare yourself into doing nothing. And yet, as Lynch observednearly 20 years ago, “in spite of all the great and minor calamitiesthat have occurred … all the thousands of reasons that the world might be coming toan end-owning stocks has continued to be twice as rewardingas owning bonds.” A top reason to not buy stocks, in Lynch’s view, isif  you don’t already own a home-in which case, that should be your firstinvestment, since an owner occupied home is nearly always profitable. ThroughA spokesman, Lynch reaffirmed these views to the housing debacle and all.When prices are falling, few people have the discipline to buy stocks, a house, gold,Art or any other asset. But those who do pull the trigger excel in the long run. As JohnD. Rockefeller famously said, “The way to make money is to buy when blood is running inthe streets.” And the streets are stained crimson. Start with stocks.They have been pummeled this year. GDP braked sharplyTIME Magazine- February 25, 2008 ..

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